Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
InflationOne-OffMacro & Economy2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.8%
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Veraltet2. Sept. 26, 19:55 UTC31. Aug. 29, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if the first published seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 (Employment-Population Ratio – 25–54 Yrs.) is below 50.0%.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- We will use the first published value for August 2029, ignoring subsequent revisions.
- If no August 2029 value has been published by December 31, 2029, the bet is void and this market will be canceled.
- (This market tracks a charity bet between Andy McKenzie and Jeff Kaufman. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQksdkrtXDbr3CtoE/ai-tweets?commentId=ZbgAGmbcnKZWtsgh6)
Offene Märkte
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 91 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 569.721,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 47.363,9 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 359.180,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 79.709 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.267,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7302,2 €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 86% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? entschieden?
- Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? soll am 31. August 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if the first published seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 (Employment-Population Ratio – 25–54 Yrs.) is below 50.0%.