Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 73.3%
Prognostiker
3
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert14. Mai 26, 17:32 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Shiller P/E Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, or CAPE) for the S&P 500 exceeds 50.0 at any point during the market's duration, based on the official data published by Robert Shiller.
- The market will resolve to "No" if the ratio remains at or below 50.0 through January 1, 2030.
- The primary source for resolution is the data provided at Robert Shiller’s Online Data website.
- Specifically, the market will refer to the "U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio" spreadsheet.
- If this data source becomes unavailable, the resolution will be based on the most widely accepted alternative index tracking the S&P 500 CAPE ratio, as reported by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal).
Offene Märkte
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 91 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 569.721,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 47.363,9 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 359.180,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 79.709 €
- 24h-Volumen
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18.267,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 7302,2 €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 73% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? entschieden?
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria