Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 16:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 58.6%
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet11. Aug. 26, 14:29 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket fly 50 times before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first rocket launch from the UK's SaxaVord spaceport be successful?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiWhich rocket will launch from Earth with humans on board first?
Manifold MarketsWill a Human Die in a Rocket Launch/ and or Space by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.