Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffKI4MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.9%
Prognostiker
1
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Stunden
Veraltet19. Sept. 25, 00:14 UTC1. Feb. 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Orienting Toward Wizard Power" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Michelle Bowman say during remarks on bank stress testing?
KalshiBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Anti-Scheming Training is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 410.124,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 56.373,9 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 58.361 €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 70.023,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 86% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? entschieden?
- Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? soll am 1. Februar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will "Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Ant..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.