Will "6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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Will "Foom & Doom 2: Technical alignment is hard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsIf the U.S. unemployment doesn't exceed 30% due to AI before 2040, which of these will be major reasons why?
Manifold MarketsIf EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post 6 reasons why “alignment-is-hard” discourse seems alien to human intuitions, and vice-versa is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.