If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]
KIOne-Off2JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseStandards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such. 80%Führend unter 14 Optionen
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11
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet2. Sept. 25, 12:05 UTC2. Jan. 29, 02:33 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Manifold MarketsWhen will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?
Manifold MarketsWill David Schneider-Joseph's bet about Beta Amyloids and Alzheimer's end up true within 12 years?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet
- This market is independent to allow for overlapping answers, which will hopefully increase clarity and granularity and hopefully reduce controversy in resolution.
- Any option that is a significant reason as to why Eliezer Yudkowsky lost the bet resolves YES.
- For example, "time-traveling AIs are responsible for UFO sightings" would resolve both "Time travel." and "Artificial intelligence." YES.
- Resolves N/A if Yudkowsky wins the bet.
- Resolution will be based on statements from Yudkowsky, RatsWrongAboutUAP, or clear consensus about the circumstances of the bet.
Offene Märkte
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC]?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Standards are revised: an explanation not worldview-shattering in 2023 now qualifies as such. mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] entschieden?
- If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] soll am 2. Januar 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird If EY loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what are the reasons why? [INDEPENDENT MC] abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/if-eliezer-yudkowsky-loses-his-bet