Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 93.4%
Prognostiker
75
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet26. Juli 26, 22:15 UTC30. Sept. 26, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?
Manifold MarketsWhat happened in Ship 37's engine bay? [Add answers]
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRegeln
It's fine if it's in many pieces.
- If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No. If only parts are recovered to shore, let's say that a major part is enough.
- I'm imagining either the full nosecone, or the full ship without the nosecone.
- Just the engine section is not enough.
- (I'm open to further resolution suggestions!)
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? entschieden?
- Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? soll am 30. September 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: It's fine if it's in many pieces.