Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 84%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 24 Minuten
12. Aug. 25, 10:29 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 Philippine Standard Time (UTC+8) on December 31, 2026, a commissioned Philippine Navy (PN) or Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel sinks (founders/submerges or is declared a constructive total loss due to sinking) as a direct result of action by a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) or China Coast Guard (CCG) ship (e.g., collision/ramming, weapons, water-cannon–induced flooding).
- Exclusions: civilian/chartered boats (e.g., Unaizah May series), Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels, and intentional Filipino scuttling not directly caused by PLAN/CCG action.
- Groundings, capsizes, or severe damage that do not result in sinking do not count.
- If a vessel sinks and is later refloated, it still counts.
- Evidence: official PN or PCG confirmation or report, plus corroboration by at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) or clear satellite/official imagery.
