Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
GeopolitikOne-OffChina2MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 51.2%
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Verzogert24. Okt. 23, 05:30 UTC1. Jan. 27, 15:59 UTC
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The Second Thomas Shoal is currently occupied by the Philippines but is claimed by multiple other states including China.
- Recently there have been several clashes between China and the Phillipines over the atoll.
- The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines.
- 'killed' requires an physical act, specifically from one of the other countries mentioned in the question.
- In other words it doesn't count if someone dies for any other reason or they die in a way where it could be reasonably deemed that their own country killed them).
- It would count if another country took some action that clearly led to a death, ie a ship was sunk and survivors were not rescued.
