Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 84.9%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert3. Apr. 24, 15:23 UTC1. Jan. 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce still be in a relationship of some kind at EOY 2026?
Manifold Markets"we're less than six months from a state change of some kind" - Joshua Achiam
Manifold MarketsWhat will the first metropolitan area to live up to some kind of selfgoverning/libertarian dream? before 2035
Manifold MarketsCanada imposes Welland Canal toll on US ships by September 30?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,
- Featuring at least one major terrorist attack using a ship,
- And evidence of at least ~10% of the death or property damage directly inflicted by actual 9/11.
- [image]This market is inspired by the rising sense of vulnerability to international business represented by shipping logistics and related infrastructure.
- In particular, this market is focusing on the possibility of state or non-state terrorist actors using ships as improvised weapons in a method broadly similar to how planes were used on 9/11.
- A warship being used by a military to launch missiles would not count, even if it has blatantly civilian targets.
Offene Märkte
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 85% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? entschieden?
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,