Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 88.2%
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet6. Juni 24, 00:06 UTC1. Jan. 31, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsMajor earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWe discover that the US had an earthquake-producing weapon by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
Kalshi8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
KalshiRegeln
Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.
- Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco.
- Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.
Offene Märkte
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.923 €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.5pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,7 Mio. €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 175.3%
- 221.8%
- 3-0.1pt2%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+2.0pt88%
- Before 203082%
- Before 2029+5.1pt53%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 233.124,3 €
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes-1.4pt5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 675.363,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1919,8 €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+12.5pt88.1%
- Yes-12.5pt11.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 10.632,9 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1733,7 €
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- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
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- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 88% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? entschieden?
- Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100.