Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 72.8%
Prognostiker
2
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
12. Sept. 26, 20:12 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
Manifold MarketsTwo+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves yes if either company takes actions that clearly and intentionally slow down frontier model capability improvement.
- Both Dario and Sam Altman have stated they think this is a good idea.
