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Veraltet4. Apr. 26, 18:24 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic or Google have a stronger model by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2029, will OpenAI derive less than 25% of revenue from token-priced API access?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiWill OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
KalshiRegeln
[tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.
- Update 2026-04-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on specific scenarios:
- Removing older model generations from API (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not older Sonnets) counts as cutting API access
- Keeping a mid-tier model but removing top-tier (e.g., keeping Sonnet 5 but not Opus 5) does not count as cutting API access
- No requirement to add the most advanced models (e.g., multi-agent scaffolds, 'Pro' equivalents) to the API
- Resolution requires access to at least: a mid-tier model from the current generation (e.g., Gemini Flash, Claude Sonnet, GPT Mini) OR the most advanced non-multi-agent model from the previous generation
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 132.799,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.316,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 322.392,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 93% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? entschieden?
- Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: [tweet]Temporary outages do not count, permanent outages count.