Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 74%
Prognostiker
14
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet29. März 26, 14:55 UTC15. Jan. 27, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will Google or Meta release a commercial facial recognition search product?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
PolymarketWill any of Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, or X accept crypto for any of their core services in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria (strict):
- Resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta publicly releases a model documented with context window >= 5,000,000 tokens by 2026-12-31.
- Must be an official release with public documentation or official product/API announcement.
- Rumors, leaks, unofficial benchmarks, or third-party claims do NOT count.
- If no qualifying official release appears by deadline, resolves NO.
- Primary sources: