Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 19.10.2026, 19:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 87.8%
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34
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Veraltet2. Nov. 23, 15:37 UTC7. Nov. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsSam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)
Manifold MarketsWill any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES when he is in prison following a conviction.
- Resolves NO if and when his current trails end without a prison sentence.
