Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
Naher OstenOne-OffEuropaPolitik4MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 27.10.2026, 15:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 86.9%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
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Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet30. März 26, 18:33 UTC28. Feb. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiWill the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market is based on the statements by Merz seen on Channel 4 News on X
- This market has reduced criteria compared to Merz's statement:
- 33% (instead of 80%) over 3 years and a reduced time frame for faster market resolution.
- Two months are added since official numbers might come out later than 1.Jan 2027
- 900_000 / 3 / 3 years = 100_000 yr⁻¹
- Resolution criteria