Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 92.5%
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Veraltet24. März 23, 05:16 UTC31. Dez. 39, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAssuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.
- If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)
