Aktuelle Community-Prognose
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Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 41 Minuten
8. Nov. 23, 10:01 UTC2. Jan. 35, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAssuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Manifold MarketsWill misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRegeln
YES = if a misaligned AI is the primary cause of death of at least 1% of the population (~81-85M deaths based on current projections) within any 12 month period that ends before 2035.
