Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 85.5%
Prognostiker
45
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert24. März 23, 05:17 UTC31. Dez. 49, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.
- If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h)
