Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 08:36 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 85.1%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet8. Feb. 26, 02:10 UTC2. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve Yes if METR removes or no longer updates the 50% Time Horizon from their Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models benchmark.
- A public statement from METR that they will no longer officially track their 50% time horizon will count
