Will it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?
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Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsConditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
Manifold MarketsWill Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?
Manifold MarketsWill Jose Luis Ricon have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
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by any statistically significant amount even if small
