Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 57.4%
Prognostiker
8
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
19. Aug. 26, 14:07 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Gustavo Petro be convicted of a crime before January 1, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
PolymarketWill the United States detain Gustavo Petro by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill former Colombian president Gustavo Petro be formally charged with a criminal offense before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Gustavo Petro face a criminal trial before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsJames Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This is the strongest and most consequential market in the series.
- It asks whether Gustavo Petro will ultimately receive a prison sentence as a result of a criminal conviction before the beginning of 2028.
- A conviction alone would not be sufficient.
- The court must actually impose a sentence that includes imprisonment.
- Resolution criteria:
- YES: If a competent court sentences Gustavo Petro to a term of imprisonment before January 1, 2028.
