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When GPT5 comes out, plot a graph of its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and chart that against the cost to train it and operate it.
- If it's clearly getting more expensive faster than it's getting better, or if the increases in capabilities are a significant slowdown from previous jumps (GPT2 to GP3 to GPT4) this resolves YES.
- CLARIFICATION: RE: the last line about capabilities, what I meant was, "if there is a significant slowdown in capabilities from this generation to the next sufficient to mean the cost curve still shows diminishing returns," which in hindsight is redundant.
- I spun off a separate market for those who want to bet on JUST whether the capabilities jump will be less than we've seen before, regardless of cost curve: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-performance-jump-from-gpt4
- If there's no CLEAR signs or it's ambiguous, this resolves NO.
