Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 80.4%
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet4. März 24, 13:06 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the IMO (International Mathematical Olympiad) be held in this country?
Manifold MarketsWill XTX Markets award the grand prize from Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize before 2030?
Manifold MarketsGPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?
Manifold MarketsWill GPT-5 be able to accurately compare weights of lead and feathers?
Manifold MarketsNate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price get in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
The resolution criteria I'll use is:
- Yes: I get evidence that I could give the best version of GPT-5 an image of a series of IMO questions, and get gold-medal level answers with minimal prompt engineering
- No: I get evidence that the best version of GPT-5 scores cannot be reasonably expected to demonstrate gold-medal level performance
- If there are credible reports of it scoring at a gold-medal level on the 2024, 2025, or 2026 IMO questions, I will consider this to be enough evidence to resolve this market as Yes.
- Given this is not my area of expertise I'll be open to suggestions in modifying this criteria, and will be clear about my intentions.
- GPT-5 definition:
