Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 86.6%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet20. Feb. 26, 14:39 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Elon Musk be assassinated before the end of Trumps presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Vladimir Putin be assassinated?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk is assassinated before January 1, 2030.
- For resolution purposes, assassination is defined as the deliberate, premeditated killing of Musk by another person.
- Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from law enforcement, medical examiners, or credible news sources documenting that Musk's death resulted from an assassination attempt.
- Deaths from natural causes, accidents, or other non-assassination-related circumstances resolve NO.