Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 92.4%
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Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
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Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
17. Juni 26, 05:15 UTC11. Sept. 26, 12:25 UTC
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This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that headline CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from July 2026 to August 2026 in the first BLS August 2026 CPI release.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the August 2026 figure unless there is no BLS August 2026 CPI release by September 18, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.2, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.5, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_yoy": 4.2, "note": "At creation time, June/July/August 2026 CPI releases were still future releases.
- The latest official CPI release available locally was May 2026.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U percent change from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["June and July 2026 CPI/PCE/PPI markets are different reference-month or different-release markets.", "Core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month headline CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS's CPI release schedule lists the August 2026 reference month for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS schedule pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
