Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 91.9%
Prognostiker
28
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet31. Mai 23, 16:57 UTC31. Dez. 30, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
This market resolves YES if any US state achieves practical independence from the United States, meeting all of the following criteria for at least one continuous year:
- The state’s government formally declares independence from the United States.
- The state ceases participation in US federal elections.
- The state government no longer recognizes the authority of US federal courts, agencies, or law enforcement.
- The state’s government collects taxes and controls its own borders without federal enforcement or interference.
- The state maintains a functioning government that provides essential services, including law enforcement and a court system, independently of the US federal government.
Offene Märkte
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 581.272,5 €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 55,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 96.847,5 €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any US state secede before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 92% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any US state secede before 2030? entschieden?
- Will any US state secede before 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any US state secede before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES if any US state achieves practical independence from the United States, meeting all of the following criteria for at least one continuous year: