Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 05:51 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 72.9%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Stunden
Veraltet2. März 23, 17:39 UTC1. Jan. 00, 20:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
Manifold MarketsAs predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?
Manifold MarketsCXMT starts mass production of HBM3 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 8.5B living humans on earth by the end of 2029? 💀🌎👶
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
A 'living human' is a fully functional intelligent human with a body made of biological matter only.
- Brain-in-a-jar, computer intelligence and emulated consciousness don't count.
- Mass production could be done by any means -- be it surrogacy or complete ex vivo embryo growth or something else.
- The only requirement is that this process is done on a mass basis and not on a personal request.