Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Other 58%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+2.8 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet8. Jan. 24, 12:53 UTC31. Dez. 34, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolution Clarifications:
- Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year
- "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")
- Mass production indicators:
- first deliveries
- explicit communication of mass production start
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.179,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 536.731,4 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
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- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Other mit 58% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot entschieden?
- In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot soll am 31. Dezember 2034 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution Clarifications: