Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 76.3%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert2. Juni 23, 09:04 UTC2. Jan. 30, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsYemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
market will resolve jan 1, 2030. "becoming a citizen" is defined as passing whatever citizenship test the country in question has, OR a country's lawmakers deciding that one or more AIs is human enough to be granted citizen status after being assembled/programmed in that country, much like how a baby born there is granted citizen status.