Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
In 2030 or earlier 55%Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
75
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet26. Jan. 24, 09:59 UTC2. Jan. 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketWhich companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
KalshiUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 605,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 691.801,4 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 603,1 Mio. €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,6 Mio. €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Manifold Markets bewertet In 2030 or earlier mit 55% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? entschieden?
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? soll am 2. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.