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16. Sept. 26, 05:37 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIs Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
KalshiWill the House pass the AI Kill Switch bill in 2026?
PredictItWhen will the U.S. authorize a government AI kill switch?
KalshiRegeln
The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.
- Examples which would NOT resolve YES:
- An AI used for military purposes kills someone who it believes to be a valid target, even if they turn out not to be (for example, friendly fire)
- An autonomous vehicle avoids a potentially fatal collision, causing a different fatal collision, even if it was aware that this would be the result
- An industrial robot accidentally kills someone without being aware that this would happen
- A human kills someone or commits suicide after talking to an AI (for example, "AI psychosis")
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 58% (Stand: 17. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? entschieden?
- Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? soll am 31. Dezember 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a rogue AI kill a human before 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The spirit of this question is that the AI should intentionally make a decision to kill someone and carry this out without a human in the loop, and that this would not even potentially be considered a reasonable decision under the circumstances by a human responsible for the AI.