Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 62.2%
Prognostiker
12
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 17 Minuten
20. Sept. 26, 15:58 UTC30. Sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsNext Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Sonnet released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Anthropic officially releases a new model in the "Sonnet" tier during the month of September 2026 (between September 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- To qualify for a YES resolution, the model must meet the following conditions:
- It must be officially announced by Anthropic or listed as a generally available or publicly accessible to claude.ai, Claude Code, or API users.
- It must explicitly feature "Sonnet" in its official name (e.g., Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 6).
