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Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet26. März 26, 22:45 UTC2. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsWill Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/
- Resolution Criteria
- APEX-SWE is a benchmark for assessing whether frontier AI models can execute economically valuable software engineering work.
- The market resolves YES when any frontier AI model achieves a Pass@1 score of 90% or higher on the APEX-SWE benchmark.
- Resolution will be verified through official APEX-SWE leaderboard results published at https://www.mercor.com/apex/ or peer-reviewed publications documenting the result.
- APEX-SWE assesses two novel task types that reflect real-world software engineering work: Integration tasks, which require constructing end-to-end systems across heterogeneous cloud primitives, business applications, and infrastructure-as-code services, and Observability tasks, which require debugging production failures using telemetry signals such as logs and dashboards, as well as unstructured context.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 71% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? entschieden?
- Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? soll am 2. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/