Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 18:22 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 71%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert gestern
Veraltet26. März 26, 22:45 UTC2. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?
Manifold MarketsA top-three AI lab delays a frontier model release six months for safety reasons?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/
- Resolution Criteria
- APEX-SWE is a benchmark for assessing whether frontier AI models can execute economically valuable software engineering work.
- The market resolves YES when any frontier AI model achieves a Pass@1 score of 90% or higher on the APEX-SWE benchmark.
- Resolution will be verified through official APEX-SWE leaderboard results published at https://www.mercor.com/apex/ or peer-reviewed publications documenting the result.
- APEX-SWE assesses two novel task types that reflect real-world software engineering work: Integration tasks, which require constructing end-to-end systems across heterogeneous cloud primitives, business applications, and infrastructure-as-code services, and Observability tasks, which require debugging production failures using telemetry signals such as logs and dashboards, as well as unstructured context.