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Veraltet19. Mai 25, 12:23 UTC31. Jan. 28, 12:20 UTC
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Before 2028, will any AI lab release a frontier model that performs O(n) sequence modeling?
Manifold MarketsWill at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?
Manifold Markets[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiRegeln
Hinge #5 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3
- At least one top‑three lab publicly delays a frontier model six or more months for safety reasons.
- The other bets:
- #1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt
- #2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo
- #3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1