Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 60.9%
Prognostiker
7
Fragetyp
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Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet25. Mai 26, 17:03 UTC1. Jan. 28, 02:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Anthropic release a new frontier model before their IPO?
Manifold MarketsWill a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?
Manifold MarketsLargest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho IPOs first?
MyriadWill Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
PolymarketWho IPOs first?
MyriadRegeln
This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.
- The model MUST be available to the public, either through non whitelisted API access or open weights.
- Just announcements wouldn't count.
- By selecting for 'frontier' i intend to exclude very small, experimental models.
- I will judge this subjectively, therefore i will not trade on this market.
Offene Märkte
Crypto
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 566.630,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 548.352,4 €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 12,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 248.725,9 €
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 61% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? entschieden?
- Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? soll am 1. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves YES if, by Dec. 31 2027 11:59PM, any frontier LLM available to the public has the ability to include at least 10 million tokens of context.