Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
KIOne-OffTechnikWissenschaft8J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 65%
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
11. Dez. 24, 15:42 UTC31. Dez. 34, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2035?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will a quantum computer with at least 1,000 logical qubits be publicly demonstrated?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegeln
This market tracks the development of large-scale quantum computers.
- Resolution requires official announcement and commercial availability of a quantum computer with >1M qubits, verified by major tech publications.
- https://quantumcomputingforbusiness.com/essentials/timelines/
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 65% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035? entschieden?
- Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035? soll am 31. Dezember 2034 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market tracks the development of large-scale quantum computers.