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  1. Prognosemärkte
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  3. Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?
Manifold Markets

Which of the following will be true about the rumored “Claude Mythos”?

Foreign ExchangeKIOne-Off6Mon
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Manifold Markets
It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release 0%
Führend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker

48

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden

Veraltet
27. März 26, 4:391. Jan. 27, 5:29

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Manifold Markets
It will be called “Claude Mythos” on release
0%
Manifold Markets
It will cost at least 3x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 currently does on the API
0%
Manifold Markets
It will cost at least 5x more per output token than Claude Opus 4.6 does per output token on the API
0%
Manifold Markets
It scores at least 50% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)
100%
Manifold Markets
It scores at least 55% on SWE-Apex (3rd party evaluation)
100%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

It will only be available on the max plan and/or the API7%

Regeln

https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves NA if no model that appears to be the one mentioned here is released by Anthropic by Jan 1, 2027
  • Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/max plan availability answer will resolve 30 days after release
  • All other answers will resolve after the model is released and relevant information is revealed
  • Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Model released" requires the model to be released to the public (not just limited access like Project Glasswing).
  • Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A name like "Claude Mythos 5" (i.e., with a version number appended) would still count as being called "Claude Mythos" on release.

Verwandte Märkte

How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 output token price get in 2026?

How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 output token price get in 2026?

110,6 €
$20/MTok or below: 14%KalshiKALSHI
How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 input token price get in 2026?

How low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 input token price get in 2026?

0,3 €
$1/MTok or below: 1%KalshiKALSHI
Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

359.169,1 €
Anthropic: 86%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?

Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?

99.631,4 €
1520+: 99%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
OpenAI IPO by...?

OpenAI IPO by...?

71.625,6 €
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When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

6090,1 €
By Dec 31, 2025: 74%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,654.11+2.24%EthereumETH$1,650.53+1.54%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.55%XRPXRP$1.12+0.17%BNBBNB$595.19+1.49%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.54%

Verwandte Nachrichten

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Regeln

https://fortune.com/2026/03/26/anthropic-says-testing-mythos-powerful-new-ai-model-after-data-leak-reveals-its-existence-step-change-in-capabilities/

Manifold Markets
  • Resolves NA if no model that appears to be the one mentioned here is released by Anthropic by Jan 1, 2027
  • Update 2026-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The API/max plan availability answer will resolve 30 days after release
  • All other answers will resolve after the model is released and relevant information is revealed
  • Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Model released" requires the model to be released to the public (not just limited access like Project Glasswing).
  • Update 2026-06-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A name like "Claude Mythos 5" (i.e., with a version number appended) would still count as being called "Claude Mythos" on release.