Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 51.3%
Prognostiker
9
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet1. Juli 26, 01:28 UTC1. Juli 27, 01:16 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 51% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? entschieden?
- Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? soll am 1. Juli 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.