Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseMalaysia 100%Führend unter 14 Optionen
Prognostiker
48
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+13.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert12. Dez. 25, 02:21 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will at least 5 democratic countries other than Australia ban social media for kids under 16 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS bans social media for children in 2026?
KalshiWhich Twitter-like social media platform will be most popular at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAustralia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the UK's social media ban take effect?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES iff a social media ban is introduced for at least some teenagers (anyone, but not necessarily everyone, ages 13-19) in the relevant country by December 31st, 2026.
- The ban must encompass at least two social media sites.
- The ban must become law by EOY 2026 (not just announced).
- For this market, partial restrictions (e.g. limits on smartphone screen time or curfews) do not suffice.
- I am far from an expert in the current laws and restrictions in each of these countries, so there may be some edge cases.
- If there is a dispute, I will attempt to rule in the spirit of the question - whether there are new laws that a reasonable person would describe as a social media ban.
