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  1. Prognosemärkte
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  3. When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

KIOne-OffSpaceTechnik5J
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKein KYC
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
By Dec 31, 2025
By Dec 31, 2025 74%
Führend unter 6 Optionen
Prognostiker

33

Fragetyp

multiple choice

Methodik

Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

Prognose

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Tagen

Veraltet
7. Jan. 25, 4:561. Jan. 32, 5:59

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

By Dec 31, 202574%

Regeln

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

Manifold Markets
  • In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
  • Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
  • Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
  • Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
  • The options would resolve as follows:

Verwandte Märkte

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Combined IPO market cap of Anthropic + OpenAI + SpaceX

165,2 €
Under $3T: 1.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
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OpenAI highest valuation by end of June 2026

146,8 €
≥$0.6T: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

What will happen in 2026 related to AI?

74,6 €
Sam Altman will continuously be CEO of OpenAI until the end of the year.: 72.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

0 €
SpaceX: 86%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?

7,5 €
SpaceX: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will SpaceX's valuation hit __ by June 30?

8971,5 €
↑$1.6T: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET

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Regeln

Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).

Manifold Markets
  • In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
  • Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
  • Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
  • Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
  • The options would resolve as follows: