Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 98.5%
Prognostiker
49
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet30. Sept. 22, 22:16 UTC2. Jan. 50, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurBank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRegeln
This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
- Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.
- Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference in opportunity cost between a 1-month investment and a 1-year investment, but there actually seems to be only a tiny difference in opportunity cost between a 1-year investment and a 10-year investment.
- (Assuming it's a small part of your portfolio so it doesn't contribute much to the loan cap).
- This is because the vast majority of your opportunity cost is incurred in the first few months - with 2% of your investment being loaned back to you every day, by 365 days less than 0.01% of your investment is still locked up in the market.
- There's another interesting consideration which is how much the long time frame affects questions like whether you and/or Manifold will still be around, etc. (Note that even if I am hit by a bus, Manifold admins have stated and shown that they usually will resolve popular markets eventually if the author is not responsive.)
Offene Märkte
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 34,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,6 Mio. €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 3,4 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 45.525,8 €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 997.035,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 41.181,8 €
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 99% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) entschieden?
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) soll am 2. Januar 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.