This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
One-OffTechnikWirtschaft & Unternehmen3JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 98.9%
Prognostiker
157
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
8. Apr. 22, 16:06 UTC2. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029
Manifold MarketsWill North Macedonia be a Member of the European Union on 1st of January 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
