Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 99%
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 42 Minuten
1. Okt. 22, 06:06 UTC2. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029
Manifold MarketsIf Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
Manifold MarketsBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketWho will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
KalshiRegeln
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month