Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 99%
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet1. Okt. 22, 06:06 UTC2. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketThis question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
Offene Märkte
SoccerPOLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 24,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,7 Mio. €
KALSHIArizona vs Kansas City
- Arizona+3.0pt51.9%
- Kansas City+1.0pt48.1%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 867.056,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 836.518,1 €
KALSHIIndepend. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama
- Tie+69.0pt98%
- Independ. Santa Fe-43.0pt1%
- Vasco da Gama-25.0pt1%
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIFluminense vs Platense
- Fluminense+37.0pt98%
- Platense-11.0pt1%
- Tie-23.0pt1%
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 514.924,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 496.890,6 €
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.9pt61.8%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.7%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.9pt11.8%
+28 weitere Ergebnisse
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
- Fluminense vs Platense: Total Goals
- Independ. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama: Total Goals
- Arizona vs Kansas City: Home Runs
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- Napoli vs Arsenal
- Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
- FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Champions League Winner
- Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo
- PSG vs Slovan Bratislava
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 99% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 entschieden?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 soll am 2. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.