Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 57.7%
Prognostiker
11
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Stunden
Veraltet6. März 25, 04:48 UTC9. Juni 69, 10:09 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?
Manifold MarketsWill @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRegeln
Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.
- Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of a word:
- A word is defined as a group of consecutive characters surrounded by whitespace.
Offene Märkte
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 226.325,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 125.213,7 €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,6 Mio. €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 108.303,7 €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5183 €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 58% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? entschieden?
- Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? soll am 9. Juni 2069 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.