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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 14:19 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose2050 AD 89.2%Führend unter 8 Optionen
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Fragetyp
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the English Premier League still exist in 2150/51 w/ 100 million or more views* per season globally?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsIf humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegeln
I'm interested in how long Manifold thinks humanity will have a non-negligible chance of surviving.
- Although many people here are pretty doomy, most would probably agree we don't have a negligible chance of living to 2050 or 2100.
- But how long does that hold?
- If we successfully get past AGI, our per-year probability of extinction will probably drastically decrease.
- Is this enough to carry us all the way to the heat death of the universe, or will even human-aligned AGI be unable to defend against every threat to the survival of humanity?
- I would count "humanity" as any group of entities that generally consider themselves to share a common identity with people living today, passed down via an unbroken chain of succession.