Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 96.2%
Prognostiker
80
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet9. Jan. 26, 08:06 UTC31. Dez. 29, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Makro-Sensible Assets
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsP(Aliens) - Is there human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsDoes a civilization with Kardashev rating equal or greater than 1 exist in the Milky Way?
Manifold MarketsWill the 30 year mortgage interest rate exceed 6.5 for the week ending in October 29, 2026? (home loans) (borrowing costs) (housing market)?
ForecastExWill the 15 year mortgage interest rate exceed 5.9 for the week ending in October 29, 2026? (home loans) (borrowing costs) (housing market)?
ForecastExRegeln
Resolves to YES if the Milky Way still exists in 2030.
- I will treat this as an adversarial long-term interest market that should better reflect the interest rates in real long-term markets.
- I will try to keep the "No" price as high as possible.
- This may include:
- Buying "No" shares
- Buying "No" shares at inconvenient times to make people lose their league spot
