Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 74.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet2. Aug. 23, 04:58 UTC1. Jan. 50, 02:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
Manifold MarketsWill Leopold own a galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegeln
This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.
- It will resolve as No otherwise.
- This time period refers to the date when the supernova has been observed, not when the supernova itself occurs (which may be many hundreds of years in the past)
- This market is an adaptation of this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/6827) ---------------------------
- Records of astronomical observations of supernovae date millennia, with the most recent supernova in the Milky Way unquestionably observed by the naked eye being SN1604, in 1604 CE.
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.315,7 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 153.550,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 39.161,6 €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 409.901,9 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 75% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? entschieden?
- Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? soll am 1. Januar 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question will resolve as Yes if a supernova has been observed by humanity in the Milky Way Galaxy at any time between August 2, 2023, to January 1, 2050.