Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2026 99%Führend unter 8 Optionen
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40
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multiple choice
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Veraltet6. Juli 25, 10:34 UTC1. Jan. 33, 23:59 UTC
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In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
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Manifold MarketsWill an LLM score >=95% on SimpleBench before 2028?
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PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
SimpleBench is a 200‑item multiple‑choice test designed to probe everyday human reasoning that still eludes frontier LLMs, including spatio‑temporal reasoning, social intelligence and linguistic “trick” questions.
- Unlike most other benchmarks, humans still outperform AI on the SimpleBench.
- State of play:
- • Human reference accuracy: 83.7 %
- • 2025 AI accuracy (Gemini 2.5 Pro): 62.4 %
- Why this milestone matters