In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
One-OffKITechnikUnterhaltung1J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 74%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet2. Apr. 24, 01:06 UTC2. Jan. 28, 12:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full Skibidi Toilet episode to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiMovie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Will an AI/LLM/Set of ML Agents/Other Machine Learning amalgamation be able to generate the output of the ~200 man years of work a software company puts into a stable 1.0 piece of software including manual or technical documentation and a passing test suite ready for release.
- Will this output be able to come from a prompt like "Software that enables users to describe potential future world situations and news filters/triggers then map potential trades against those outcomes such that the portfolios can be modeled and ranked and the best trades executed against news triggers"
- Resolution Criteria: The capabilities above are publicly demonstrated by the close date.
- The ~200 years of man effort is subjective but I will tend towards generosity here, if the other criteria are met.
- The outcomes of providing running executables, a manual and passing tests will be judged by me, but should be verifiable by the release of the output by the demonstrating group by anyone for this to resolve yes.
- I will be reasonably generous on the prompt used but it should be for something similarly involved as I have described above.
